Cars as We Know Them Might Be Unrecognizable by 2025

I recently asked my son Ben, who oversees much of the consumer research at Creative Strategies, to weigh in on another subject: self-driving cars. Information technology was originally published on our Tech.pinions blog.— Tim Bajarin.

Lately, I've been wondering if we are thinking about the evolution of automobiles, transportation, and commuting completely backwards. In reading enquiry from component and supply chain vendors on electric vehicles, it'south clear the move to electric powertrains is upon up. However, everyone assumes the future of autonomous vehicles and driver transportation systems will await similar to the cars we know today. I'm not so sure.

There is no doubt we will kickoff convert existing cars into EVs every bit we move toward level 5 autonomy. In example you have never seen the chart explaining the levels of autonomy, and where we are today, here is a useful diagram.

Autonomous Car Chart

As yous tin see, we are only at the level ii stage of autonomous applied science; it volition likely take many years to accomplish full autonomy, where no interaction from the passenger is needed. Most reports indicate that electric cars will be cost-competitive with gasoline cars around 2022-2021, a big pace on the road to autonomous driving features. Most experts estimate the 2022s volition be when level v becomes a reality; perhaps around 2025.

Opinions But part of me wonders if level 5 autonomy will go far in a class factor not familiar to today's car owners. Through a range of conversations I've had with investors and other experts, it seems in that location is a chance the technology may evolve more from electrical wheel applied science than car technology. If in the hereafter, nosotros simply get passengers and not drivers, there is no need for large, cumbersome vehicles on the road. There are already very pocket-size single and double rider "pods" on the road today, and they are a much more efficient use of space.

The promise of full autonomy has always been that cars will be able to talk to each other and therefore can be packed in much closer together on the road. Nearly all simulations of the futurity yous see simply accept a highway packed with full-size or meaty cars moving within a few feet from each other. Just flip the equation and imagine passengers in small pods that fit on the road in the aforementioned space a mid-size automobile takes upwardly today, and you technically tin can fit four times as many people on the road.

In that location will no doubt be a mix of sizes since some families volition demand larger vehicles and nosotros volition notwithstanding take buses and trucks on the road, but I have a strong sense that the vast bulk of commuter vehicles volition be small-scale pods.

This scenario makes sense as it requires less battery ability, smaller drivetrain, and fewer sensors. What got me thinking about this was my own experimentation and testing of a range of electric bicycles, with drivetrains equally low as 250 watts and every bit high equally 1,000 watts. Fifty-fifty on a 250-watt drivetrain, my 160-pound body could articulate 25mph. And on bikes with 1,000 W drivetrain, I could get over 40mph. The bombardment is a small canister that charges fast and lasts for 25 miles in total electrical fashion. While not quite the range of a fully electric car, the point is if the time to come design of passenger vehicles looks like pods they will be cheaper, need smaller batteries and capacity, utilise smaller drivetrains, and overall be more efficient.

The entire industry is moving to a manufacturing process to bring electric cars and add together total autonomy to a class cistron that I don't believe will exist as common on the road in the future, particularly in urban areas. Just all that investment and R&D in manufacturing infrastructure for big cars will only pave the style for cheaper, more efficient smaller ones once shift from drivers to passengers fully takes identify.

Ben Bajarin leads Creative Strategies' behavioral assay and research center where the impacts of many consumer behaviors, digital dwelling house / family and continued lifestyle technologies are studied. He also manages Artistic Strategies' custom inquiry arm and is responsible for maintaining information models for smartphones, PCs, tablets, and many other topics.